Don’t Buy Real Estate in March 2011, buy 2012 and after

/ October 8th, 2011/ Posted in real estate / 25 Comments »


A Second wave of Adjustable loans will push Real Estate lower the middle of 2010 through the end of 2011.


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25Comments

  1. Bennyclay661
    2011/10/09 at 09:10:23

    do you know of anything in the city of charlotte also do you expect then end of this year that all properties across america will fall should I buy now if i can get a 20% return.

  2. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/09 at 08:41:19

    @Bennyclay661
    It depends on the area and the property. In Redondo Beach the prices are only down about 15% from their 2006 peaks due to lack of land. All the cities around Hawthorne, Lawndale, Torrance are about half price. If prices came down in the last 12 month in Charlotte, they will probably come down a little more before Mach 2012. I am seeing several properties so low but when I call there are 15 offers on the properties and they are already in escrow.

  3. cosmicfeedom
    2011/10/09 at 08:28:39

    U GUYS DONT UNDERSTAND IF THE NWO SUCCEEDS U WONT BE ABLE TO BUY ANYTHING WITH OUT THE MARK OF THE BEAST VOTE RON PAUL AND THINGS WILL CHANGE TRUST ME

  4. MiaMonique
    2011/10/09 at 07:34:53

    I work in the housing developement industry in Alabama and we are having an upsurge in build homes but there are still plenty of home on the market. Has something changed to start the increase in building again?

  5. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/09 at 06:49:53

    @MiaMonique
    Nothing has changed. In 2010 one million homes were foreclosed on and in 2011 another one million foreclosures are expected.

  6. sang3Eta
    2011/10/09 at 06:43:03

    @MrAlanKendall amazes me that nobody remembers the 20% interest rates at the end of the 70s bubble and this one seems worse!

  7. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/09 at 05:52:29

    @sang3Eta
    I agree. I saw a clip or Reagan trying to get the Republican ticket and complaining that the Governement was printing 20 million per day. Today it is 4.1 billion per day, 205 times more.

  8. LUVallova
    2011/10/09 at 04:56:32

    @MiaMonique
    It’s all just stimulous money, as soon as that’s all gone and inflation and interest rates skyrocket, all those houses will soon be empty too.
    When a government doesn’t fully allow Ponze economies to crash, they only prolong the crash, they never avoid it.

  9. bluehorse888
    2011/10/09 at 04:50:57

    Hello Mr Kendall: Do you think the housing crash will occur in Canada as well..and would it be prudent for me to wait to buy in Canada untill 2012-13?

  10. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/09 at 04:26:38

    @bluehorse888
    Price drops are caused when supply grows faster than demand, so you will have to see what the building and population growth rates are in Canada. Builders built 2.2 million homes per year in 2006 which was excessive since the population increases at 2.76 million per year and there is 1 home for every 2 people (2.76 million per year population increase should be 1.4 million home sales per year). (From Census, 227 million in 1980 and 310 million in 2010).

  11. sweetnet77
    2011/10/09 at 03:31:44

    Mr Alan, I was wandering would it be a good idea to click claim deed a property to someone that needs a place to live and can assume the mortgage instead of walking away.

  12. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/09 at 02:46:20

    @sweetnet77
    If the person can assume the mortgage it would be great. I had one approved but when I submitted all the paperwork the bank called the loan. The existing loan was 6% but the new loan that I got under pressure was 9% variable. If you ever need a heart transplant, wait for the last possible moment and get a banker’s heart for it will never have been used.

  13. Soneenee
    2011/10/09 at 02:37:51

    Why should people wait to buy when they can buy one now, i think people should accumulate as much debt as they can before the depression starts. Also, banks need people to borrow in order to retain their high salaries and high profits.

  14. melvin6767
    2011/10/09 at 02:05:01

    Goldman Sachs made huge profits from the housing crisis by betting that people wouldn’t be able to pay their mortgages.

  15. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/09 at 02:01:03

    @melvin6767
    That is incredible. I shorted countrywide when it broke the lower channel’s trendline but I got out way too soon for a slight profit. A friend of mine who was a broker told me that Countrywide was the most at risk because they had the most sub-prime loans. My entry was excellent but my exit was way too soon.

  16. lizadfuel
    2011/10/09 at 01:37:47

    What will happen to real estate prices when interest rates rise?

  17. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/09 at 00:45:40

    @lizadfuel
    Interest Rates rise when the value of Property is doubling. I know that this is not what is commonly accepted but you will see it happen the second half of this decade.

  18. Airforcing
    2011/10/08 at 23:57:57

    This analysis may have been a good guess at the time of uploading, but now many variables are playing that invalidate prediction. Most States are fighting the foreclosure proceedings, and winning. There isn’t going to be more foreclosure heading the next year, banks are going to make less Economic Profit instead. Add, very little to no more homes are being built and the economy is slowly but surely on the recovery mode, and population growth make this analysis is out of date.

    no pun intended

  19. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/08 at 23:57:46

    @Airforcing
    Loans peak in resets September 2011 and March 2012 loans almost completely stop resetting. After march 2012 prices will only get stronger. I estimate prices will rebound 30% to the upside by between 2012 and 2015 (like in the aerospace recession when foreclousres quit increasing). After the foreclosures are all sold off in 2015, prices should have a strong jump. I estimate that between 2016 and 2027 prices will jump 8 times (700%) in price.

  20. jamcocktail
    2011/10/08 at 23:03:43

    Invest all your money right now.This is the best time to buy Foreclosures,Tomorrow will be too late

  21. MrAlanKendall
    2011/10/08 at 23:03:33

    @jamcocktail
    Great comment. Foreclosures are at an all time high. Prices are crashed. Interest rates are at a 50 year low. Prices are likely to stay low until March 2012 when loans quit resetting. Then prices will only get stronger. Between 2012 and 2015 I expect a 30% jump and after 2015 I expect massive jumps in prices due to inflation and the foreclosures being sold off by then.

  22. reallyletsdoit
    2011/10/08 at 22:24:25

    I still still correct ?

  23. jobedied
    2011/10/08 at 21:32:11

    Everything is fine government and federal reserve will print trillions more dollars the banks can then loan out this print money all the glut of housing and commercial real-estate will be bought and the bulldozers, paving, and erecting can begin again. The party never dies as long as we print baby print. The doors of immigration must be thrown wide open no restrictions allowed with huge population increases America is back in business with mini and super malls and warehousings endless horizons.

  24. Thorneization
    2011/10/08 at 21:21:36

    Don’t be foolish. When investing in cycles you still have to watch the markets and what’s going on. Until the Euro or USD colapses then it’s game on. Gold and silver is where you need to be.

  25. urbanecondetroit
    2011/10/08 at 20:57:26

    Take a look at the YouTube video– Mortgage Tsunami Two: 2011-2013

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